A long-standing anomaly for efficient markets has been what’s called “post-revision return drift” (PRD). Research into stock returns has found that changes in sell-side analyst recommendations for buying and selling stocks predict future long-term returns in the same direction as the change. Upgrades are followed by positive returns, and downgrades are followed by negative returns….
It seems that in the upcoming presidential election, American voters will be faced with choosing between two candidates with the highest unfavorable ratings in history. It’s either that (at least if the parties’ national conventions go as expected), or a choice not to vote. The unfavorable ratings of both candidates are creating a great amount…
There are many anomalies in investing. It wasn’t easy to isolate the three biggest ones, but here are my choices: You love Warren Buffett, but ignore his advice. Warren Buffett has rightfully been called “the greatest investor of his generation, or ever.” Given his cult-like status, you’d think investors would hang on his every word. For many…
You likely feel as though you don’t have enough time to watch a video that is 17 minutes and 47 seconds, right? But what if watching it allows you to penetrate beneath the scar tissue of busyness and distraction and transform your view of work and the satisfaction you derive from it? Would it be worth it,…
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a column about the growing tribe of people who value experiences over security in their lives. But there is something that I didn’t say then that I want to emphasize: You don’t necessarily have to trade experience and financial security off against each other. One of my main inspirations for…
It’s logical to believe that corporate managers have a preference for issuing equity at times when they perceive that their company’s stock price is overvalued, or high relative to some benchmark (such as price-to-earnings ratio or book-to-market ratio). What’s more, the academic research on the subject supports this hypothesis—seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) tend to be…
I want to talk to you about scary markets. For the sake of this particular subject, I want to be blunt and a little bit in your face. So for the next few minutes, please, just think of me less as your friend and more as your Scary Markets Drill Sergeant. O.K.? Great. Now, you may…
Hey, grads. It’s never too soon to start planning and saving for your retirement (even if it seems far off). Larry Swedroe gives MarketWatch’s Robert Powell his thoughts on what college students and recent graduates can do now to avoid regret later. Find it on MarketWatch.com By clicking on any of the links above, you…
In life, there are certain nonnegotiables we simply must have. Think food, water and shelter for starters. Nobody will ask, “Is it worth it to eat?” It’s just something you do to stay alive. But deciding what to eat? That’s a different question. Will I eat the bologna or prosciutto? Drink tap water or bottled?…
Of all the misinformation disseminated to investors, the most pernicious supports the belief that some “investment pro” or pundit has the skill to reliably pick outperforming stocks. This myth is perpetuated by endless blogs and television appearances by “gurus” touting their latest and greatest stock selections. A steady drumbeat A quick review of what passes…
One of the questions I’m most often asked by reporters covering finance is: “What are the biggest risks facing investors?” My usual response is that the biggest risk confronting most investors is staring right back at them when they look in the mirror. And there’s plenty of academic research to support that view. Much of…
Allocations by institutional investors to alternative investment classes have risen substantially during recent decades. By 2010, the 1,000 largest sponsors of public pension funds allocated on average more than 17% of their assets to alternatives, including 9% to venture capital and buyout funds and 6% to real estate. At the average university endowment, alternatives in…
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a column about the growing tribe of people who value experiences over security in their lives. But there is something that I didn’t say then that I want to emphasize: You don’t necessarily have to trade experience and financial security off against each other. One of my main…
Of all the misinformation disseminated to investors, the most pernicious supports the belief that some “investment pro” or pundit has the skill to reliably pick outperforming stocks. This myth is perpetuated by endless blogs and television appearances by “gurus” touting their latest and greatest stock selections. A steady drumbeat Read the rest of the article…
Last week, we examined a study that found investors’ risk tolerance fluctuates positively with recent market returns. This behavior is in direct conflict with rational economic theory, which dictates that when market returns become negative, wealth contracts and risk aversion should therefore decrease (while risk tolerance should increase). Instead, the authors found that investment losses,…